I AM CONTINUING TO GET ADDITIONAL SELL SIGNALS IN MY MODEL, THE

REASONS FOR SELLING ARE STARTING TO CATCH UP WITH THE REASONS FOR
BUYING. (1ST TIME IN 5 YEARS)

I AM RECOMENDING LOCKING IN 15 YEAR MORTGAGES ON ALL NEW AND EXISTING
REAL ESTATE INVENTORY AND TO HOLD FROM 5 TO 15 YEARS TO RIDE OUT ANY
POSSIBLE CORRECTION OR FLAT LINE IN THE R.E. MARKET. (POSSIBLY THE
LAST TIME RATES ARE THIS LOW) OF COURSE ANY PROPERTY STILL BOUGHT
LESS THAN 80% IS OK FOR A QUICK TURN USING OTHER FINANCING SOURCES.
DON’T GET CAUGHT IN A SELLERS RUN HOLDING HARD MONEY.

I AM CONCERNED WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SPECULATION/GREATER FOOL
THEORY BUYING IN THE RENO/CARSON AREAS BY LOCALS AND OUT OF TOWNERS.

SOME OF MY BIG SELL SIDE INDICATORS THAT CONTINUE TO GET WORSE ARE:

RENTAL INVENTORY INCREASING SHARPLY.

RENTAL RATES CONTINUING TO DROP.

NON OWNER OCCUPIED PROPERTIES IN MOST AREAS, IE: SPECULATORS.

COMMERCIAL INVENTORY INCREASING, WAY OUT OF WACK ON INVESTMENT RETURN.

2 YEAR EQUITY GYPSIES UNLOADING THEIR PROFITS FOR CAPITAL GAINS
EXCLUSION. (ESPECIALY WHEN THEY FIND OUT THEY CAN’T RENT EASILY AND
BREAK EVEN)

COMMON MAN THEORY: WHEN EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT HOW MUCH THEIR
INVESTMENT HAS GONE UP AND IT IS IN PRINT REGULARLY IT SIGNALS A TOP.

MY BIGGEST CONCERN IS THAT INVENTORY WILL CATCH UP WITH DEMAND, IE:
NO MORE WAITING LISTS ETC. AT SUBDIVISIONS AS RATES CONTINUE THEIR
UPWARD MARCH. ALL BETS ARE OFF ON INTEREST RATES AFTER THE ELECTION,
WE ALREADY HAVE SEEN A 15% INCREASE IN RATES IN THE LAST 2 WEEKS.

SUBDIVISIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY UP THE DEMAND, THE REALITY IS MOST
PEOPLE ON THE LISTS ARE ON 20 OTHER LISTS OR ARE NOT READY TO BUY.
THIS DILUTES THE READY AND ABLE BUYERS TO MUCH LESS THAN IT APPEARS.

CONCLUSION: STILL BUY, BUT NOT LIKE A DRUNKEN SAILOR JUST LANDING IN
TOWN, EVENTUALY THEY SOBER UP, WHEN THEY DO THEY MAY WANT TO GET OUT
OF HOCK.

THE BIG RUN UP IN PRICES IS BEHIND US, ANYONE OVER EXTENDED SHOULD
TAKE SOME MONEY OFF THE TABLE, DON’T GAMBLE, DO YOUR HOMEWORK!

PLEASE POST ANY COMMENTS, THESE ARE MY OWN PERSONAL BELIEFS AND DON’T
REFLECT THOSE OF MY REAL ESTATE COMPANY OR ANY OTHER AFFILIATE OF
MINE. THEY ARE POSTED ONLY FOR MEMBERS OF THE CLUB AND NOT TO BE
DISTRIBUED OR QUOTED.

SINCERELY,

RON BELL

Filed under: LOCAL MARKET